Betaine Aldehyde is a non-GMO biological
which naturally enhance stress-resistance in plants:
works on cellular level in any crop
against drought, soil salinization, frost, etc.
Our mission is to develop a low-cost synthetic production of this compound for widespread agricultural use for spraying and seed-treatment applications.
The market ceiling for betaine aldehyde is evaluated using the agricultural market in the USA, where the data is available for such analysis, and USA has a representatively large population, i.e. a sizable fraction of the global population (i.e. ~5%). USA outputs ~$500 billion worth of agricultural products per year. The cost/contribution of pesticides and fertilizers is approximately $40-60 billion per year. Their use allows achieving higher crop yields, which in the end is very profitable as allows increasing the profit by ~25%. Some part of this market will significantly benefit from the use of betaine aldehyde (BA) as it will make the plants more stress resistant. Considering that plants experience stress rather frequently, the probability of drought, frost, etc. is relatively high. Moreover, the achievements in the field of meteorology allows predicting weather conditions in advance of the weather worsening and therefore can potentially offer an advantage of predicting the time window, when application of BA (by spraying) will provide the most benefit. BA is a complete solution, it is safe, and when applied properly, it will ensure that the plants have a better chance of surviving and producing the harvest, i.e. all the investments made (planting, watering, fertilizing) will be recovered thanks to BA application (moreover, BA can be used for seeds treatment too). For example, in the past 4 years, the wheat crop yields had a fluctuation of 23-30% in Russian Federation demonstrating the pattern of plants vulnerability to stress. Conservatively, 20% of the crop yield could have been recovered. Since the fluctuations have positive and negative sign, we arrive to 10% benefit factor for potential use of BA to protect wheat from stress (i.e. times when application of BAC makes sense). When multiplying 10% by 40-60 billion used for fertilizers & pesticides (the lower estimate already made as the initial investment in plants) we arrive to ~$5 billion estimate for USA market, or $15 billion/year for Chinese marker or ~$30 billion for global market. It should be stressed that this estimate represents the upper limit with 100% market penetration at the fair price that the Agro business can afford and realize true and significant added value (through increased crops' yields, decreased use of water, longer vegetation season, etc.). Nevertheless, it is very important to estimate the maximum market cap (i.e., ~$30 billion globally).
We now consider the area that is being used by the biotech/genetically modified crops, which is ~170 million hectares (ha): https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2016/03/07/future-crop-biotechnology-brazil-china-bric-nations/ It should be noted that the total area occupied by permanent crops globally is estimated to be ~1600 million acres, i.e. the area used by the biotech crops represents approximately 10% of the total area used for crops, but it should be noted that the biotech crop area usage has been growing at sustained double digit rate (~13%): https://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/briefs/35/executivesummary/default.html
Using the estimate for BA treatment at $20/ha/year, we arrive to a potential current market estimate of $3.4 billion for current usage of 170 million ha. The maximum market size is ~$32 billion/year assuming that all land used for crops will be treated with BA. Note that this estimate agrees with the above estimate based on the added benefit/value, which the Agro market can afford.
With regards to more specialized markets,
China now has ~4 million ha under biotech crops, indicating that the current market in China is estimated at $80 million/year. The overall Chinese market with 122 million of cropland is estimated at ~$2.4 billion/year;
Russia now has ~80 million ha under crops, indicating that the potential market in Russia is estimated at $1.6 billion/year with representative example of Krasnodarskii Krai of $80 million/year based on 4 million hectare area used for crops;
Cyprus represents a relatively small area with ~0.1 million ha under crops, indicating that the potential market in Cyprus is estimated at $2 million/year.